The notions of climate change-induced migration in general and climate-induced displacement, in particular, have become an important issue of discussion in recent times. In its latest assessment the AR5, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has devoted an entire section explaining the complex relations between climate change and migration. The crisis of climate-induced displacement is already unfolding across the globe. Central America and portions of Mexico could be one of the regions dramatically affected by climate change in the coming decades. Papua New Guinean atolls, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Maldives, Bangladesh and different parts of Africa have already begun to take various initiatives to address the crisis at the national level.
Climate change is a long drawn process. However, over the last couple of centuries, the change has been accelerated by the massive industrial growth in the industrial countries. The US and other industrialized countries with about 20% of world population are responsible for over 80% of world’s carbon emission. At the current rate of carbon emission, the average global temperature will rise between 3 to 5-degree celsius by 2050. A 3-degree celsius rise will increase the sea level as much as 1.3 meters compared to just 21 centimeters in the last 100 years.
Such temperature increase and sea level rise will dramatically displace communities with rapid onset processes such as storms, hurricanes, floods, heat waves and forest fires and slow onset processes such as drought, desertification, and sinking of coastal lands. Recent estimates suggest that by 2050 one in every 45 people (250 million) in the world will be displaced by climate change. The number of people already displaced by climate change is around 25 million.
Climate change may result in various types of population movement. Communities whose land would be submerged will be displaced and will have very little option but to move. Some of those who would lose their traditional livelihood will manage to stay in situ through migration of one of more members of their families and resultant remittance flow. The relatively well-off families may resettle in safer locations. However, a large number of people could be trapped as they may, on one hand, be barred from migrating either internally or internationally, or on the other, simply may not have the means to do so. These groups will be forced to continue to live in areas under threat where they will be extremely vulnerable to environmental shocks and impoverishment. The impact of climate change among the affected people will vary according to age, class, and gender.
Various studies have informed that climate change induced migration flows will mostly be internal. However, unfortunately, dominant view of policy makers, particularly of the developed countries, perceives the climate-induced migrants as threats to receiving areas. For example, “climate wars” is a fear-based narrative promoted by the US military. It claims that climate-induced displaced poor communities will engage in violent conflict over scarce resources, will storm the US borders or become terrorists. Such images are built upon fear and racism to increase resources for the militarization of the border and military expansion into other countries. Such militarization effort is getting support from anti-immigrant groups. The aim of this session is focused to build a more nuanced regional analysis.
It is in this context the PGA session on Climate Change and Migration would focus on four areas:
- Experiences of climate change induced a displacement in different countries and regions. National and regional strategies and action plans in addressing such displacement.
- National and regional experiences of planned and autonomous adaptation practices of governments, NGOs, and the affected communities.
- Country and regional experiences of identifying climate-induced migrants as a security threat.
- National and regional experiences of using livelihood migration by the climate change affected households as one of the many adaptation tools. The types of policy and actions required supporting such livelihood internal and international migration.
Possible recommendations
- Develop strategy to highlight both internal and international migration in the context of climate change is a right. Governments should recognize and prepare for that eventuality, bringing communities into the planning process.
- Development of a comprehensive multilateral framework for responding to climate change-induced displacement. It should incorporate programmes for all three stages: pre-displacement (prevention and preparedness for relocation), during displacement (humanitarian assistance and recovery) and post-displacement (durable solutions: return, local reintegration, and resettlement).
- Governments, NGOs and development partners should take the lesson of autonomous adaptation practices of individual households or communities to incorporate into their national strategies and action plans.
- A global campaign has to be launched against labelling migrants as security theat. Migration in general and climate change-induced migration, in particular, should be desecuritized.
- A priority should be placed on investments that increase resilience to climate change, such as maintaining and managing natural forests, natural coastal protections such as mangroves.
- In order to avoid high concentration of migrants in a few mega-cities urban growth centres should be decentralised. While developing urban growth centers living arrangement of service providers who are usually the migrant needs to be planned in close by peri-urban areas. These peri-urban areas should be designed with low-cost housing, educational institutions, medical facilities, access to safe drinking water, sanitation and electricity. Improved connectivity with urban growth centers should be established.
- Ensure that climate-induced migrants are not forced to take recourse to irregular migration and opportunities for migration through the regular channel is made available to them.
- Developed countries are to be pressured for reduction of carbon emission. Part of global funds that have been created for climate change adaptation should be spent on migration governance and protection of migrants.